White Women:
2000 Bush 49 Gore 48%
2004 Bush 55 Kerry 44%
That's the election. You can't fade a 10% loss in the largest voting block, 41% of the electorate, and expect to make it up anywhere else.
The other major voting blocks stayed very similar:
White Men:
2000 Bush 60 Gore 36%
2004 Bush 62 Kerry 37%
African Americans:
2000 Gore 90 Bush 9%
2004 Kerry 88 Bush 11%
Terrorism fear obviously swayed white women, probably married white women, toward Bush as a security blanket. I couldn't figure out the 5 point difference in the Florida presidential and senate races until I checked the numbers among white women. They broke 49-49 for Castor and Martinez, no doubt the natural tendency. But with the national security concern atop the ticket, it changed to Bush 56 Kerry 43.
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