Two new Strategic Vision polls tonight in Michigan and Wisconsin (http://www.strategicvision.biz/political /results.htm) and I thought it was interesting to use state polling to compare Bush's approval rating, as opposed to the national approval polls we have been debating. I don't think it's reasonable to deny there has been a bump in the past month. Both states list Bush higher than similar Strategic Vision polls in August, from 34% to 38% in Michigan and 32% to 37% in Wisconsin. These are blue states that will poll lower than the national average.
In Michigan, Bush improves 3% on terrorism, 4% on Iraq but only 1% on the economy, from 27% to 28%. I realize no one wants to hear that, that Bush's approval rating is lower on the economy than Iraq or overall. While Bush is obviously receiving a bump from lower gas prices that does not appear to be impacting the view of the economy. I'm destined to be frustrated for the balance of this campaign, looking at horrid approval ratings on the economy while we insist on never mentioning it. Just the other day Bush handed us a silver platter quote by saying the economy was in great shape and he expected the election to be a referendum on the economy. Just imagine if he said Iraq was in great shape. The blogosphere and TV pundits would have been all over that. Yet Bush polls worse on the economy than Iraq. I had a previous diary with the numbers from 9 SV polls. It's beyond incredible he thinks the economy is in great shape despite the approval ratings screaming otherwise, yet we make no attempt to pounce.
Admittedly, in Wisconsin Bush polls somewhat lower on Iraq than the economy. That was true in August also, the only state where Iraq was higher. In September, Wisconsin goes from 43% to 49% on terrorism, 22% to 25% on Iraq and 26% to 29% on the economy.
I will point out the economy was the only category in which Bush did not receive at least a 4% in increase in either Michigan or Wisconsin. In fact, the rise on the economy was 1% in Michigan and 3% in Wisconsin, for an average of 2%. Meanwhile, the overall approval rating rose an average of 4.5%, terrorism bumped an average of 4.5% and Iraq an average of 3.5% higher.
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Also, I'm hardly comfortable with the poll margins of Granholm (47-46) and Doyle (46-42), in the SV polls and elsewhere. If you look at the SV surveys, both states have a huge wrong track percentage. If we see the incumbent rule kick in and reverse expected outcomes, it will be in gov races, where the voters are much more inclined to bolt from party lines and hold a familiar incumbent accountable for lousy conditions in their home state.
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Michigan: (August 25-27)
Overall: 34%
Terrorism: 49%
Iraq: 35%
Economy: 27%
Michigan: (September 15-17)
Overall: 38%
Terrorism: 52%
Iraq: 39%
Economy: 28%
Wisconsin (August 11-13)
Overall: 32%
Terrorism: 43%
Iraq: 22%
Economy: 26%
Wisconsin: (September 15-17)
Overall: 37%
Terrorism: 49%
Iraq: 25%
Economy: 29%
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