These are nine surveys since April, seven of them in August. To use a simple average, Bush's overall approval number is 34.8%, That is statistically insignificant from his approval rating on Iraq, which is 34.4%. To demonstrate how closely the overall/Iraq approval numbers track each other, in seven of the nine samples they are within three percentage points.

Meanwhile, in all nine surveys the approval rating on the economy is lower than the overall approval rating, and only twice is it higher than Iraq. The average approval regarding the economy is 29.9%.

Bush fares much best on terrorism, at an average of 48.7%.

So in emphasizing Iraq, our strategy is to attack Bush not at his weakness or his strength, but smack in the middle. Interesting. I guess I'll be charitable and say I always appreciate a good body blow in boxing.

These states lack an example from the Southwest and the heartland, but four are among the so-called battleground states, with samples from the South, Northeast, upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest, so I can't dismiss it as non-representative.

Based on another poll I noticed recently, one problem with overboard emphasis on Iraq is too many Americans improperly associate Iraq with the overall war on terror, Bush's approval strong suit. The CBS News/NY Times poll has been asking that question as part its survey. Those numbers can be found at this link: http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm Only in the most recent poll from August 17-21 did "separate from" take a small lead at 51-44. In June and earlier during August, "part of" (the war on terrorism) lead, by 54-41 and 50-46.

We cannot afford to make a faulty assumption and get it wrong, the lousy handicapping I'm always talking about. Our fate is determined by women, specifically percentage among married women, and whether unmarried women vote period. I've looked at enough poll cross tabs this year to understand we succeed only with a wide gender gap and heavy support from independents. IMO, and I believe supported by these numbers, there should be much more balance between Iraq and homeland emphasis, in our campaigns/commercials and talking head dialog. Women prioritize the economy more than men, and also have a lower favorable opinion of the economy than men.

It should be simple to round up devastating statistics on the economy, and ones that aren't well known to the populous, unlike the number of deaths in Iraq or that it's an obscenely expensive war.

*  *  *
Strategic Vision Polls, Bush Approval Rating:

(Notice there are two Georgia samples in this group, the only state represented twice and the one with largest Republican partisan index in this block, and predictably the highest approval ratings for Bush. Every average would be lower, and the disparity between overall/Iraq and the economy would be greater, if Georgia were excluded. In 5 of the 7 non-Georgia surveys, Bush's approval rating on the economy is 27% or less)

Florida (August 25-27)

Overall:      37%
Terrorism: 50%
Iraq:           40%
Economy:   31%

Michigan (August 25-27)

Overall:      34%
Terrorism:  49%
Iraq:           35%
Economy:   27%

Washington (August 25-27)

Overall:     32%
Terrorism: 48%
Iraq:           26%
Economy:   27%

Georgia (August 18-20)

Overall:       41%
Terrorism:  52%
Iraq:            42%
Economy:    40%

Wisconsin (August 11-13)

Overall:      32%
Terrorism:  43%
Iraq:            22%
Economy:   26%

Pennsylvania (August 11-13)

Overall:        32%
Terrorism:   50%
Iraq:             34%
Economy:    25%

New Jersey (August 11-13)

Overall:    37%
Terrorism:  53%
Iraq:            38%
Economy:    29%

Georgia (earlier, June 23-25)

Overall:      45%
Terrorism:  49%
Iraq:            47%
Economy:   43%

New York (April 21-23)

Overall:      23%
Terrorism:  44%
Iraq:            26%
Economy:    21%